Nature Communications · 15 September 2026 · From issue 37
Sero-catalytic and spatial modeling of dengue virus force of infection in Timor-Leste
Dengue infection risk swings from about 1% to over 50% a year across Timor-Leste.
Paul Arkell, Filipe de Neri Machado et al.
Dengue infection risk is not the same everywhere in Timor-Leste. In one area, only about 1% of people catch it each year. In another area, over half the people catch it each year. Drier air was linked to higher risk, and the biggest risk was found along the northern and eastern coasts, including two major cities.
The range in yearly dengue infection risk found across different neighborhoods in Timor-Leste.
One country survey of 4,780 people, based on blood tests, not live case tracking.
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