Science Advances · 2 October 2026 · From issue 45
Background trade winds and climate sensitivity control the eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern
In climate models, trade wind strength and warming sensitivity predict future eastern Pacific Ocean warming.
Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, Alexey V. Fedorov.
Ocean temperature models show that by the late 2000s, the eastern Pacific Ocean may warm faster than the west. This creates a pattern similar to a mild, permanent El Niño, which shifts weather patterns worldwide. Two things control how strong this effect gets: how forceful the normal trade winds are in a model, and how sensitive that model is to rising greenhouse gases. These two factors explain about 74% of the differences between climate models on this question.
The estimated shrinkage of the east-west Pacific Ocean temperature difference by 2100 under high emissions.
Climate model analysis only, not observed future warming yet.
Integrity screen: passed (3 checks) Checked 6 October 2026. Retraction record: none. DOI resolves at doi.org. Metadata record found (Science Advances). Read the source
This screen checks process signals. It does not tell you the findings are true.