Nature · 15 July 2026 · From issue 09
In a model, healthier diets by 2050 would cut global farm value by 1.6 trillion dollars.
Matthew Gibson, Marina Sundiang et al., Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture, Nature.
A model looked at what would happen if the world shifted to healthier diets, cut food waste in half, and farmed more efficiently by 2050. Global farmland would shrink by 6%. Farm production would fall 17% below current plans, and total farm value would drop by 1.6 trillion dollars. Meat farming would shrink a lot, while fruits, vegetables, nuts, and beans would grow instead.
The projected drop in global farm production value by 2050 if diets became healthier and food waste was cut.
Model based projection only, not an observed real world change yet.
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