Nature · 29 July 2026 · From issue 13
Warming raised malaria in some African regions and lowered it in others, nearly balancing out overall.
Colin J. Carlson, Tamma Carleton et al., The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa, Nature.
Climate change has already changed malaria risk for children in Africa, but not in one simple direction. Warming raised malaria cases in East and southern Africa. At the same time, warming lowered cases in West Africa. These two effects mostly canceled out, leaving only a small overall change across the whole continent.
The estimated net change in childhood malaria across Africa so far due to human-caused warming.
Continent-wide estimate with wide uncertainty ranges, not a local prediction.
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