Nature Communications · 18 August 2026 · From issue 23
Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones
Rivers overflow their banks at very different rates depending on climate, not every two years.
Yinxue Liu, Michel Wortmann et al.
Rivers can only hold so much water before they spill over their banks and flood the land. Flood models around the world usually guess that this spilling happens once every two years, no matter where the river is. New research shows that guess is often wrong. Rivers in hot wet regions overflow about every 1.5 years, and rivers in mild regions overflow about every 1.8 years. Rivers in cold regions overflow less often, about every 2.8 years, and rivers in dry regions overflow only about every 4.3 years.
The range in how often rivers overflow their banks, depending on climate zone.
Global estimate, not direct measurement of every river.
Integrity screen: passed (3 checks) Checked 19 August 2026. Retraction record: none. DOI resolves at doi.org. Metadata record found (Nature Communications). Read the source
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