Nature · 15 July 2026 · From issue 07
Earth's magnetic storms may be twice as strong as once believed, with no true limit.
Nithin Sivadas, David Sibeck et al., Regression to the mean can explain saturation of geomagnetic storms, Nature.
Scientists once thought Earth's magnetic response to strong solar wind hits a ceiling during extreme space weather. This new study shows that "ceiling" was actually a math illusion. It comes from a common statistical trap called regression to the mean, caused by uncertain measurements of the solar wind's timing and strength. Once the errors are fixed, Earth's response keeps growing steadily with solar wind strength. It never levels off. This means the biggest geomagnetic storms could hit Earth twice as hard as scientists had believed.
Integrity screen: passed (3 checks) Checked 28 July 2026. Retraction record: none. DOI resolves at doi.org. Metadata record found (Nature). Read the source
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